College Basketball Preview - Big 12 Conference

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OUTLOOK: No other conference in the nation experienced as much turbulence in the off-season as did the Big 12. First there was the defection of one of the top coaches in the game, as Kansas legend Roy Williams left the Jayhawks to coach at his alma mater, North Carolina. There was the 'party-hearty' scandal at Iowa State in which coach Larry Eustachy was dismissed for inappropriate actions. There have also been a few legal issues surrounding a couple of Cyclones. And finally came the whole Baylor debacle, in which a player was murdered, a former player accused of the crime, coach Dave Bliss left the team amid speculation of a cover-up, and as a result, star player Lawrence Roberts, along with others, took their game elsewhere. All that aside, the Big 12 is once again poised to represent itself to the nation as one of the premier leagues. The usual suspects litter the top tier of the conference, with Kansas, Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma all expected to battle for league supremacy. Add Eddie Sutton's Oklahoma State Cowboys and Bob Knight's Texas Tech Red Raiders to the mix, and you've got yourself a top-heavy conference bound to send as many as six teams to the 2004 NCAA Tournament. Squads at Colorado and Texas A&M are expected to show improvement this year, while Kansas State, Nebraska and Iowa State will have their ups and downs, probably more of the latter. Baylor, which endured more controversy this off-season than any team should ever have to, is exempt from postseason play, but overall, the Big 12 should be able to maintain its rightful place among the very best conferences in the country.


CONFERENCE CHAMPION: KANSAS


PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

1. Kansas; 2. Missouri; 3. Texas; 4. Oklahoma; 5. Oklahoma State; 6. Texas Tech; 7. Colorado; 8. Texas A&M; 9. Kansas State; 10. Iowa State; 11. Nebraska; 12. Baylor


TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:

KANSAS - With four of the top six players from last year's Final Four squad back for another go, even the loss of future Hall-of-Fame coach Roy Williams and NBA first-rounders Nick Collison and Kirk Hinrich won't deter the Jayhawks from making another run deep into the postseason. Former Tulsa and Illinois head man Bill Self is the new man in charge and brings a highly successful track record to Lawrence. The return of standouts Keith Langford, Wayne Simien, Aaron Miles and Jeff Graves gives the Jayhawks a solid foundation on which to build. Self was able to get all of KU's incoming freshmen to honor their commitment, and that is especially good news when you consider the class includes a pair of McDonald's All-Americans in J.R. Giddens and David Padgett. Giddens is a talented scorer who should make an immediate impact, joining Langford and Simien, who averaged 15.9 and 14.8 ppg, respectively last year, to form a solid trio of options at the offensive end. Simien, when healthy, is also a monster rebounder, having grabbed 8.2 boards per outing last season. Miles is a highly-skilled point guard, who dropped 8.9 ppg while dishing out 6.4 apg in 2002-03. The feeling in Lawrence is one of nervous anticipation as the post-Williams era gets underway. How far the Jayhawks go depends on health, the youngsters making contributions from the start, and the team's willingness to implement and run Self's system to near perfection.

MISSOURI - Coach Quin Snyder's Tigers are as excited to begin this season as any in recent memory. That's because Mizzou is loaded with talent and is expected by many to unseat Kansas as the Big 12's top team. The duo of Rickey Paulding and Arthur Johnson provide the Tigers with a formidable one-two punch, while the team's attention to matters at the defensive end should help achieve success as well. Paulding is as explosive as any player in the conference, and is coming off a year in which he averaged 17.4 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. Johnson, who led the league in double-doubles last year with 19, simply continues to get better, as he scored 16.1 ppg while grabbing a team-high 9.1 rpg. Add the contributions of Travon Bryant (8.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg) and Jimmy McKinney (8.6 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.4 apg) to the mix and you can see why there's an air of excitement in Columbia and with Tiger fans everywhere. Missouri wound up with one of the top recruiting classes in the nation, and the addition of guys like 6-8 forward Linas Kleiza and 6-2 point guard Randy Pulley should pay dividends immediately. Kleiza could prove to be one of the top rookies in the nation as he has outstanding scoring instincts. Oh, and let's not forget that former VMI standout Jason Conley, who has led the nation in scoring previously, will be eligible in December, giving Mizzou some serious offensive firepower.

TEXAS - Despite the loss of 2002-03 Wooden Award winner T.J. Ford, the Longhorns still have plenty of talent in the cupboard. James Thomas, who averaged 11.1 points and a league-leading 11.0 rebounds per game last season, is back to dominate games, while fellow forward Brandon Mouton looks to reach even greater heights after netting 14.8 ppg a year ago. The loss of Ford leaves a void at the point, but others in the guard rotation should make their presence known, specifically Royal Ivey, who tallied 7.9 ppg last season. Getting first crack to fill the huge shoes vacated by Ford will be sophomore Kenton Paulino. If he falters however, expect to see juco transfer Edgar Moreno running the show. Moreno isn't nearly as quick or electrifying as Ford, but he has a better outside shot and can handle the ball well enough. Ivey could also see time at the point, but the hope is coach Rick Barnes can get one of two of the aforementioned guys ready to handle the job. Helping Thomas up front will be bruiser Brad Buckman. The 6-8 sophomore turned in a solid rookie campaign in the 2002-03, averaging 6.7 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, while shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. The key to the Longhorns' staying competitive in the race for the Big 12 title this year will be how well the new point guard handles the pressure. If Thomas, Buckman, Ivey and even guys like Sydmill Harris and Brian Boddicker, are able to do what they're capable, a first-place finish is not out of the realm of possibility.

OKLAHOMA - With the entire starting backcourt from last year's team that won 27 games and lost to eventual national champion Syracuse in the East Regional final gone, the Sooners will be hard-pressed to reach the same pinnacle of success in 2003-04. Coach Kelvin Sampson must find a way to replace the production of guards Hollis Price and Quannas White, as well as forward Ebi Ere, but the Sooners aren't totally devoid of talent. In fact, several standouts remain, including sophomore forward Kevin Bookout and senior center Jabarhi Brown. Bookout had a solid rookie season last year, averaging 9.4 points and 5.4 rebounds per game, while Brown, who runs the floor well for a big man, can add to the offense and play ferocious defense as he finished with 6.3 points and 5.5 caroms per contest a year ago. De'Angelo Alexander will be looked upon to pick up where Price left off, and whether or not the skilled sophomore who averaged 7.1 ppg last season will be up to the task, remains to be seen. Another guy who could pick up some of the scoring slack left by the departure of Price and Ere is redshirt senior Jason Detrick, who averaged nearly 10 ppg in 2001-02. OU's newcomers have talent and most should play an important role in the upcoming season, most notably diminutive point guard Andrew Lavendar. The 5-7 McDonald's All-American can fly up the court, but whether or not he can handle the rigors of play in the physical Big 12 is the question.

OKLAHOMA STATE - The Cowboys lost a pair of double-digit scorers in Victor Williams and Melvin Sanders, but the hope is coach Eddie Sutton will get the rest of his team playing above their means. Guard Tony Allen and forward Ivan McFarlin are OSU's top returnees, and Allen has the potential to be one of the best backcourt players in the Big 12. The 6-4 senior is coming off a year in which he averaged 14.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, while McFarlin did a solid job in turning in a line of 10.7 ppg and 7.8 rpg with a .548 FG percentage. The arrival of twins Joey and Stevie Graham (transfers from UCF) have folks in Stillwater abuzz with what the present holds. Both should see considerable playing time and each will certainly make their presence known, although the key to the season will be whether Allen, last year's Big 12 Newcomer of the Year, is able to make the adjustment from solid contributor to superstar. Sutton is a legend, and with the question of whether or not he will retire anytime soon settled with last year's contract extension, getting his players to rise to the occasion and make this year a memorable one could be provide the icing on an already stellar career.

TEXAS TECH - The Red Raiders are led by a legend of their own, albeit a controversial one. Bob Knight is without question one of the top college coaches of all time, but he is probably known more for his gruff exterior and erratic behavior than he is for his actual coaching methods. This year's collection of Tech basketball players is hungry to make a run at the top of the Big 12 standings, although the squad probably isn't as talented as in recent years. Sure, All-Conference guard Andre Emmett is back to hopefully build on the 21.8 points and 6.4 rebounds per game he averaged a year ago, but exactly who is going to help at the offensive end is anybody's guess at this point. Robert Tomaszek has the requisite skills needed to impact matters along the front line, but he contributed just 8.3 points and 5.0 caroms per contest last season, so whether or not he can be a big-time player remains to be seen. The addition of guys like juco transfers Devonne Giles and Joseph Works, as well as true freshman Jarrius Jackson will add some much-needed firepower, but overall, the fate of the Red Raiders' season lies in whether or not Knight and Emmett can coexist, as there has been some friction between the two in the past. TTU will pull off an upset or two during the season, but in the end simply lacks the overall talent and depth needed to finish near the top of the Big 12 standings.

COLORADO - This could be coach Ricardo Patton's best squad ever, but the Buffaloes still have questions and how long they take to get answered could be the difference in a highly successful season or one mired in mediocrity. The Buffs will be fine up front, as David Harrison is one of the top big men in the Big 12. Despite being highly-praised coming into the season, Harrison must build upon the 13.9 points and 8.3 rebounds per game he charted a year ago. Helping CU's overall cause will be talented seniors Michel Morandais and Blair Wilson, both of whom averaged in double figures last year. Morandais led the team at 16.9 ppg. Colorado won 20 games in 2002-03 and pulled off major upsets of Kansas and Texas, but for the Buffaloes to excel this season, the team's big three (Morandais, Harrison and Wilson) are going to need to set the tone from the outset. Some of the younger, less-experienced players will need time to develop, but the thought in Boulder is that this year's collection of Buffs should be able to play consistently better basketball, particularly on the road, and maybe even make another trip to the NCAA Tournament.

TEXAS A&M - The loss of the school's and the Big 12's all-time leading scorer in Bernard King means the Aggies will approach the 2003-04 season with a bit of uncertainty. King's departed 17.0 ppg average is going to be missed, but A&M has another talented player ready to assume his role as team leader in the form of sophomore swingman Antoine Wright. The 6-7 Wright had a stellar rookie campaign, averaging 14.5 points and 6.6 rebounds per game. He shot just 36.4 percent from the field overall, but dropped 38.2 percent of his three-point tries. Helping Wright achieve superstar status will be new point guards Bobby Leach and Acie Law, both of whom have talent but are unproven at present. The Aggies were the Big 12's worst rebounding and defensive team last year, and a major turnaround in both areas is paramount to the team's success. Expect guys like Kevin Turner and Leandro Garcia-Morales to put forth much better efforts than they did a year ago, and for some of the talented crop of newcomers to make some noise as well. Still, how far the Aggies climb the Big 12 ladder depends on the team's overall health and whether or not coach Melvin Watkins can keep the squad focused and in a winning frame of mind.

KANSAS STATE - With three double-digit scorers from a year ago gone, the Wildcats are scrambling to find adequate replacements and might spend the first half of the season tinkering with the lineup in an effort to find the right combination. Right now, it looks as if coach Jim Wooldridge is going to rely heavily on athletic freshman Cartier Martin to carry much of the scoring load. The 6-8 Martin was a Parade All-American last year and has the ability to score both inside and out. Seniors Frank Richards and Tim Ellis have demonstrated their wares in the past, but despite averaging nearly 10 ppg apiece last year, they are not the superstar caliber K-State is going to need to make serious headway in the supremely talented Big 12. The Wildcats will instead concentrate on stingy defense and balanced scoring to hopefully win more games than they lose. Richards and Ellis could shine, but the player most think will is Martin. If he, and fellow Texas prep star Dez Willingham, can make a splash early, it could go a long way toward making this a memorable season in Manhattan.

IOWA STATE - With the Eustachy controversy hopefully behind them, the Cyclones enter the 2003-04 season with a sense of optimism that they can climb back to league respectability. New coach Wayne Morgan was supposed to have a productive nucleus around which to build, but suspensions of some key personnel have left the team in a state of disarray. Senior guard Jake Sullivan is as prolific a scorer as there is in the conference. Sullivan averaged 17.0 ppg last year in shooting 45.3 percent from the field and a solid 41.9 percent from three-point land. Juco transfer Damion Staple earned All-America honors last season, while rookie guard Will Blalock has shown the ability to explode to the basket and will be counted on to contribute immediately. If the newcomers are unable to produce, Sullivan will be pretty much on his own, at least for a while, as veteran backcourt mate Tim Barnes (11.3 ppg), who was arrested over the summer for DUI, was suspended for the first semester for academic reason, and senior center Jackson Vroman (12.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg) has been suspended indefinitely for a recent DUI arrest as well. It was the second off-the-court incident involving Vroman in the last five months as a marijuana possession charge back in May also resulted in suspension. How much of a distraction all this plays into the upcoming season is anyone's guess, but the players left on Morgan's squad are sure to play hard and hopefully make the ISU faithful proud with their effort.

NEBRASKA - The Cornhuskers won just 11 games last season, and lost 14 of their last 17 to close the year. Despite the collapse there is reason for optimism, albeit guarded, heading into the 2003-04 slate, as the team's top two scorers are back for their final year of eligibility. Andrew Drevo and Nate Johnson both averaged better than 13 ppg last year, but neither is what you would consider a superstar, or even one in the making. Drevo adds a solid rebounding presence to the mix, as he grabbed 7.3 rpg last season, but coach Barry Collier's squad will lack the formidable presence in the paint needed to keep most opposing teams at bay. Junior guard Jake Muhleisen is back after netting 11.7 ppg and shooting nearly 47 percent from the field despite missing a ton of time with a hip injury. Overall, however, the team will need to do a much better job at hitting its shots as it did so at better than 40 percent just four times in 16 conference games last year. The Huskers were the Big 12's worst team in scoring offense, field goal percentage, three-point shooting percentage and assists. The hope is another year of seasoning, along with the arrival of some new blood will help turn things around. Junior forward John Turek is a guy to watch out for as he became just the sixth player in school history to block 50 shots in a season, doing so last year.

BAYLOR - No team in recent memory has had to deal with the kind of turmoil the Bears have since the end of the 2002-03 season. New coach Scott Drew has the unenviable task of trying to rebuild a BU men's basketball program that has taken one hit after another recently. Drew has a respectable pedigree as he is the son of former Valparaiso legend Homer Drew, but for the young, exuberant Drew to succeed, he is going to need to keep his team focused and playing above it means all season long. The Bears were levied a self-imposed postseason ban for all that went on during the spring and summer, meaning that this year's team will be playing for nothing more than respectability and pride. The center piece of the team was going to be Lawrence Roberts, but his decision to transfer to Mississippi State has Drew, who was Valpo's head coach last year and led the Crusaders to a 20-win season, scratching his head in search of an answer. Senior center R.T. Guinn is back to hopefully build upon the 10.6 points and 5.6 rebounds per game he averaged last year, but beyond him, there isn't a whole lot left. Freshman Carl Marshall was a lethal three- point shooter in high school, but the team's lack of consistent scoring punch is certain to be its downfall.

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